A new public opinion poll released days ahead of Guatemala\u2019s presidential race indicates former dark-horse candidate Bernardo Arevalo is heading into the vote with a healthy lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Arevalo, a candidate for the progressive Movimiento Semilla or Seed Movement, is projected to win by 61 percent, according to a survey published on Wednesday by the research firm CID Gallup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Such a victory would mark a major upset over early frontrunner Sandra Torres, a former first lady representing the conservative party National Unity of Hope (UNE). Torres and Arevalo are set to go head-to-head in a run-off election on August 20, the culmination of a bumpy presidential race rocked by fears of political interference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On June 25th, Arevalo surprised the political establishment with an unexpectedly strong finish in the first round of voting. The son of Guatemala\u2019s first democratically elected president and a member of Congress himself, Arevalo scored 11.8 percent of the vote, a total only surpassed by Torres at 15.7 percent. No other candidate polled higher than 8 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That result propelled Arevalo and Torres to Sunday\u2019s run-off. But in the aftermath of Arevalo\u2019s first-round success, rival parties questioned whether the vote tally was accurate, appealing to the court system for a review Prosecutors claimed that 5,000 signatures used to form the party had been fraudulent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Presidential candidate Sandra Torres, of the National Unity of Hope (UNE) political party, poses for a selfie during campaign rally ahead of the presidential run-off, in Guatemala City, Guatemala August 5, 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Legal experts quickly denounced the move as a violation of Guatemalan law, which prohibits suspending a party\u2019s legal status in the midst of an ongoing election. And the country\u2019s Constitutional Court ultimately reversed the lower court\u2019s suspension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the Attorney General\u2019s Office has continued to take action against the Seed Movement, ordering police to raid the party\u2019s offices for evidence. Police raids have also targeted the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the country\u2019s election authority. The tribunal ultimately requested an injunction against the Attorney General\u2019s Office to ensure the election\u2019s integrity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Guatemalan government has long contended with allegations of corruption, as prosecutors have pursued prominent journalists, judges, lawyers and public accountability advocates on what critics consider trumped-up charges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The country\u2019s attorney general, Maria Consuelo Porras, has herself been sanctioned by the United States \u201cdue to her involvement in significant corruption.\u201d \u201cDuring her tenure, Porras repeatedly obstructed and undermined anticorruption investigations in Guatemala to protect her political allies and gain undue political favor,\u201d U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Torres, meanwhile, has pushed a platform based on greater government transparency. But she too has faced corruption allegations in the past and was briefly arrested in 2019 on suspicion of campaign finance violations. A judge eventually dismissed the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Wednesday\u2019s CID Gallup poll found that 52 percent of Guatemalans surveyed were optimistic that the country would improve under Bernardo Arevalo’s leadership, whereas only 6 percent said the same of Torres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A survey from CID Gallup shows Bernardo Arevalo surging ahead of conservative rival Sandra Torres in the lead-up to Sunday\u2019s vote<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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