On Monday, Polymarket gave President Lula da Silva a 63% chance of winning Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, placing him well ahead of his potential challengers.
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Among them is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, far-right politician Flavio Bolsonaro, who was proclaimed the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate.
Polymarket, which operates as a prediction market where users trade contracts tied to the probability of different events, ranks Lula as the leading favorite to win the election. The trading volume related to the election has already exceeded US$116 million, one of the highest figures recorded for a political process in Brazil.
Far behind Lula is Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, with a 23.8% chance of success, followed by Renan Santos with 9.4%, and Goias Gov. Ronaldo Caiado with 2.1%. Lula’s advantage, however, is not limited to prediction markets.
On Monday, the BTG/Nexus poll also showed Lula leading voter intentions, even after the United States imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian products. That result is consistent with an earlier Datafolha survey, which found Lula with 40% voter support, compared with 32% for Flavio Bolsonaro, reinforcing a favorable trend for the incumbent president.
According to Polymarket’s analysis, Lula’s lead is driven by his status as the incumbent, the possibility of seeking a fourth term, the fragmentation of right-wing forces, and recent scandals involving Flavio Bolsonaro.
The election campaign has also been marked by controversy after the Liberal Party’s campaign released an AI-generated video that included a message from Jair Bolsonaro. The initiative drew criticism because it could violate the electoral prohibition preventing prisoners from expressing political opinions, while also raising debate over the regulatory limits on the use of this technology during election campaigns.
Criminal defense attorney Jose Carlos Portella Jr. warned of possible “tricks” and far-right disinformation tactics while expressing concern about the actions of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), headed by Kassio Nunes Marques, a justice considered close to Bolsonaro’s political movement.
teleSUR/ JF
Sources: Polymarket – Ambito
Source: teleSUR English
