Bolivia is going through a political and economic crossroads that forces it to look back at its own history. After two decades of leftist governments, the recent rise of center-right politician Rodrigo Paz Pereira threatens to reopen the old wounds of the neoliberal model in Bolivia and jeopardize the advances won by popular movements since the 2000s.
It was in these last two decades that the Andean nation established itself as an example of self-determination and resistance in Latin America, defeating the model imposed by the Washington Consensus since 1985.
That experience, born from the streets and collective effort, redefined the meaning of popular sovereignty.
Today, that cycle seems to have come to an end. The recent victory of the center-right candidate Rodrigo Paz Pereira, ending almost 20 years of leftist governments, marks a political turning point.
With the promise of “capitalism for all” and an economic opening celebrated by figures like Javier Milei and the US Secretary of State, the shadow of Neoliberalism in Bolivia threatens to return.
This article will explore the deep history of Bolivian resistance, analyze the achievements and cracks in the MAS’s sovereignty project, and examine Rodrigo Paz’s proposals and the risk they represent for the path of self-determination carved out by the people.
Rebel Memory: Two Decades that Challenged Neoliberalism
Bolivia’s recent history is marked by a resistance that transformed its destiny. In 1985, Supreme Decree 21060 opened the neoliberal era under the government of Víctor Paz Estenssoro.
The “relocation” of between 20,000 and 30,000 miners symbolized the dismantling of the workers’ movement and the country’s total subordination to the prescriptions of the International Monetary Fund.
The promises of prosperity quickly faded. Between 1985 and 1997, the “capitalization” model promoted by Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, a disguised privatization, handed over public companies to foreign consortiums.
Instead of development, mass impoverishment arrived: 63% of the population ended up below the poverty line.
The country lost nearly 400 million dollars and, above all, the state’s capacity to decide over its own resources.
But Bolivia did not resign itself. The social struggles of the late nineties and early 2000s turned the country into a symbol of Latin American resistance.
The Cochabamba Water War (2000) confronted and defeated the transnational corporation Aguas del Tunari, opening a deep crack in the system.
Three years later, the Gas War of 2003 ended with the flight of Sánchez de Lozada after a popular insurrection that left 67 dead.
These milestones not only overthrew a government: they shifted the country’s political axis and reinstated the idea that the people can decide their own future.
With the fall of Carlos Mesa in 2005 and the expulsion of the French company Suez, Bolivia hit rock bottom and was reborn.
The streets had won. And with them, the possibility of a sovereign national project emerged, driven by the popular majorities who demanded the recovery of natural resources and the democratization of wealth.
The MAS Years: Recovered Sovereignty and an Interrupted Process
The electoral victory of Evo Morales in 2006 and the rise of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) marked the beginning of an era of transformation.
For the first time, social struggles moved from the streets to the ministries. The nationalization of hydrocarbons and the call for a Constituent Assembly reconfigured the foundations of the Bolivian state.
For nearly twenty years, MAS governments reduced poverty, expanded state investment, and placed natural resources at the center of the productive model.
GDP grew steadily and Bolivia achieved financial independence from the IMF. It was, without a doubt, a stage of unprecedented economic dignity.
However, the process stagnated. As economic growth became the priority, structural transformations, especially in banking, mining, and the agro-export model, remained unfinished.
Historic social organizations denounced the decline in popular participation as the state apparatus became bureaucratized.
This exhaustion was reflected in 2019 with the coup that interrupted Morales’s government and, later, in the successful campaigns of the moderate right, which channeled economic discontent and the lack of political renewal within the MAS.
Fuel crises, inflation, and dollar shortages weakened the credibility of a project that, despite its achievements, seemed to have stopped listening to the pulse of the people.
Rodrigo Paz Pereira and the Return of the Neoliberal Discourse
The election of Rodrigo Paz Pereira, from the Christian Democratic Party, marks a breaking point.
With 54.57% of the vote in the second round, the new president promises a “new economic modernization” that his critics clearly identify as a reissue of the old neoliberal model.
he family symbolism does not go unnoticed: Paz is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora and the great-nephew of Víctor Paz Estenssoro, the very one who signed the decree that inaugurated four decades of privatization and fiscal adjustment. The historical circle seems to be closing.
Although the new leader’s discourse presents itself as “moderate and open to dialogue,” some economists warn that his policies already outline a return to market logic. His first measures evidence this:
- Opening and Deregulation. A reduction in taxes and labor flexibility is proposed under the pretext of “incentivizing investment.”
- End of General Subsidies. The government is preparing the gradual elimination of the fuel subsidy, replacing it with a “targeted” scheme that could directly affect transportation and local production.
- External Dependence. Paz has announced a mega economic cooperation agreement with the United States for 1.5 billion dollars, celebrated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio as “the end of two decades of ineffective populism.”
International backing reinforces suspicions of a new alignment with Washington. Javier Milei was one of the first to congratulate Paz, stating that “Bolivia returns to the free world with an open economy.” For social movements, these words are a warning more than an invitation.
Warning Signs: Privatization and Social Fracture
The new government’s roadmap could reopen wounds that took Bolivia decades to heal. Union and peasant sectors are already warning about the reactivation of capitalization policies and the possible sale of state shares in strategic companies.
All this is part of what Paz calls “a productive and popular capitalism,” a familiar rhetoric in which the term “popular” often gets reduced to a slogan.
If these plans are fulfilled, economic sovereignty could be at risk again. Public services, energy, and mining, recovered at the cost of repression and bloodshed, are once again in the sights of foreign capital.
If 1985 represented the defeat of the working class, 2025 could become the beginning of a new market offensive against the state.
The regional context is also unfavorable. The neoliberal shift sweeping part of Latin America, driven by right-wing governments in Argentina, Ecuador, and Paraguay, creates a favorable environment for the pro-market reforms that would drive re-privatization under the discourse of “efficiency and modernization.”
Memory as a Defense Against the Return
The government of Rodrigo Paz not only inaugurates a new political stage but also a profound challenge for the Bolivian left and social movements.
On the horizon, the possibility of a return to the neoliberalism that caused so much damage between 1985 and 2005 is looming.
But Bolivia possesses an invincible weapon: its collective memory. The Water and Gas Wars were not simple episodes of protest, but the purest expression of power born from below.
That rebel memory remains alive and is today the strongest guarantee to confront the advance of privatizing capital.
